Commodity Market Trading Tips-Oil prices edge up on tighter supplies, healthy demand

Oil prices rose on Wednesday on tightening supply and strong global demand, although some analysts warned of a downward correction after a more than 13-per cent price rise in a month.

Prices have been driven up by production curbs in OPEC nations and Russia, as well as by healthy demand-growth.

oil-field-ap

Brent crude futures were at $69.35 at 0124 GMT, up 20 cents, or 0.3 per cent, from their last close.

Brent on Monday hit $70.37 a barrel, its highest since December, 2014, which was at the beginning of a three-year oil price slump.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.93 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.3 per cent, from their last settlement. WTI hit a December-2014 peak of $64.89 a barrel on Tuesday.

In an effort to tighten markets and prop up prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia started to withhold production in January last year, and the cuts are set to last through 2018.

This restraint has coincided with healthy oil demand and economic growth, pushing up crude prices by more than 13 per cent since early December.

“Oil remains underpinned by the solid economy with strong oil demand tightening global oil inventories. The past years’ surplus supplies are slowly disappearing,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

US crude stocks fell by 11.2 million barrels in the week to January 5 to 416.6 million barrels, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.

“After years of oversupply, the inventories are contracting much faster than the markets had anticipated,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

Despite this, Ruecker warned that “hedge fund expectations for further rising prices have reached excessive levels”, especially as political risk factors that have helped boost Brent, including tensions in Qatar, Kurdish regions and in Iran have so far not caused significant supply disruptions.

“The bullish momentum might prevail in the very near term but profit-taking and a correction should occur eventually,” he said.

One major factor that in 2017 prevented crude prices from rising further was a surge in US production.

Despite a drop in January due to extreme cold in North America, US crude output is expected to soon break through 10 million barrels per day (bpd), challenging top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

However, it could take time for this expected rise in output to have a substantial impact on global supplies.

“While US drillers may come back online … WTI and Brent could move higher near-term regardless,” said Oanda’s Innes.

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Today’s Commodity Market Trading Tips-Gold Rate Today: Gold, silver up in morning trade

Gold and silver were trading higher in early trade on Tuesday on account of buying in precious metals by jewellers, industries and retailers.

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MCX Gold futures were trading 0.13 per cent up at Rs 29,792 per 10 gram at around 10.35 am (IST), while MCX Silver futures were up 0.17 per cent at Rs 39,638 per 1 kg at around the same time.

According to SMC Investments and Advisors, bullion counter may continue its upside momentum as fall in greenback is supporting its prices.
“Gold can move in range of Rs 29,500-29,900 while silver can move in range of Rs 39,200-40,000 in near term,” the brokerage house said.

Gold imports increased by 71.52 per cent to $3.39 billion in December because of weak global prices and higher domestic demand.

According to the commerce ministry’s data released on Monday, silver imports too jumped by 106 per cent to $197.26 million last month as against $95.84 million in December 2016.

Gold imports by India, the world’s second-biggest consumer of gold, stood at $3.39 billion in December 2017 as against $1.97 billion a year ago.

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Commodity Market Trading Tips-Oil dips away from 2014 highs on rising US rig count, but analysts say market supported

OilBSE -0.48 % prices dipped on Monday as rising drilling activity in the United States pointed to higher future output, although output cuts led by OPEC and Russia as well as healthy demand kept crude near December 2014 highs reached last week.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $69.72 per barrel at 0008 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 per cent, from their last close.

crude_oil_new_240

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $64.27 a barrel, down 3 cents.

Both Brent and WTI last week reached levels not seen since December 2014, at the start of the oil price slump.

ANZ bank said oil prices had recently risen “on the back of data continuing to show the market is tightening.”

Despite the sharp price rises since December, some analysts have been warning of a downward correction.

“Many believe that oil prices above $60 will self-correct as this level of prices will encourage substantially more drilling in US shale which will lead to increased supply,” said William O’Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia’s Rivkin Securities.

US energy companies added 10 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 12, taking the number to 752, energy servicing firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.

That was the biggest increase since June 2017, and ANZ bank said the jump came “as shale producers quickly reacted to the strong rise in prices in 2018.”

The picture was similar in Canada, where energy firms almost doubled the number of rigs drilling for oil last week to 185, the highest level in 10 months.

The high prices for crude, which is the most important feedstock in the petroleum industry, have also crimped profit margins for oil refiners, resulting in a decline in new crude orders.

Overall, however, oil markets have been well supported by production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia which are aimed at propping up crude prices.

The cuts started in January last year and are set to last through 2018, and they have coincided with healthy demand growth, pushing up crude prices by more than 13 per cent since early December.

Attracted by tighter supplies and strong consumption, financial investors have raised their net long US crude futures positions, which would profit from higher prices, to a new record, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

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Commodity  Market Trends

Commodity Trends

  R1 S1
GOLD 29700 29350
SILVER 39500 38720
CRUDE 4175 4005
COPPER 463.20 449.50
LEAD 164.80 160
Natural Gas 201 180
 

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COMMODITY OUTLOOK on Copper Market

Copper:-

Copper has started the day on positive note and traded higher for entire day, which indicate positive strength in the prices. On the other hand, MCX Copper has been trading in broadening formation on daily chart; where price has shown recovery after giving a small correction. Moreover, RSI (14) has shown positive crossover on daily chart. So based on the above technical structure, we expect upside movement in MCX Copper future.

copper

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Today’s Commodity Market Tips-Gold Rate Today: Gold, silver trade flat in morning deals

Gold and silver were trading on a flat note in morning deals on Thursday on account of subdued demand of precious metals from jewellers, industries and retailers.

MCX Gold futures were down 0.06 pe cent, or Rs 18, at Rs 29,306 per 10 gram at around 10.40 am (IST), while MCX Silver futures were down 0.03 per cent, or Rs 13, at Rs 38,979 per 1 kg at around the same time.

gold-silver-ts (1)

However, brokerages believe that the yellow metal may continue to trade higher on Thursday. Angel Commodities said, “We expect gold prices to trade higher continuing its momentum from the previous trading session while the actions by China to slowdown treasury purchases results in to weak dollar in turn higher commodity prices.”

SMC Investments and Advisors said, “Bullion counter may trade on positive path as weaker greenback and US initial jobless claim data to give further direction to the prices. Gold can move in range of Rs 29,200-29,500 while silver can move in range of Rs 38,800-39,500 in near term.”

The holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust , the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.35 per cent to 828.96 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday. Holdings fell for a second straight day on Wednesday.

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कमोडिटी बाजार में आज कहां लगाएं दांव

अमेरिका में ऑयल रिग और ओपेक की सप्लाई गिरने से कच्चे तेल में तेजी आई है। ग्लोबल मार्केट में इसका दाम करीब 3 साल की ऊंचाई पर है। ब्रेंट में 68 डॉलर के ऊपर कारोबार हो रहा है। वहीं डब्ल्यूटीआई क्रूड 62 डॉलर के ऊपर है। पिछले करीब एक महीने में कच्चे तेल का दाम करीब 10 फीसदी तक उछल चुका है। इस बीच सोने में गिरावट आई है और ग्लोबल मार्केट में सोना 1320 डॉलर के नीचे आ गया है। चांदी भी कमजोर है। वहीं लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज पर मेटल में भी बेहद छोटे दायरे में कारोबार हो रहा है। हालांकि डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया आज कमजोर है। 1 डॉलर की कीमत 63.5 रुपये के पार है।

commo_open_240 (2)

फिलहाल एमसीएक्स पर सोना सपाट होकर 29,260 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। चांदी 0.2 फीसदी की मामूली बढ़त के साथ 39,100 रुपये के ऊपर कारोबार कर रही है। वहीं, एमसीएक्स पर कच्चा तेल 1 फीसदी की उछाल के साथ 3,950 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। नैचुरल गैस करीब 1.5 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 181.7 रुपये पर पहुंच गया है।

बेस मेटल्स में हल्की बढ़त के साथ कारोबार देखने को मिल रहा है। एमसीएक्स पर कॉपर 0.15 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 454.5 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। एल्युमीनियम 0.25 फीसदी की तेजी के साथ 138.1 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। निकेल 0.2 फीसदी बढ़कर 799.7 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। हालांकि लेड 0.1 फीसदी गिरकर 165.15 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। इसके अलावा जिंक सपाट होकर 215.9 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है।

एग्री कमोडिटी में एनसीडीईएक्स पर सोयाबीन 0.15 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 3,210 रुपये पर कारोबार कर रहा है। इसके अलावा एनसीडीईएक्स पर चने का मार्च वायदा 0.15 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 3,850 रुपये के करीब कारोबार कर रहा है।

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