कमोडिटी: विदेशों में सोने में हेजिंग पर रोक, क्या करें

अमेरिका में अगले हफ्ते ब्याज दरें बढ़ने की उम्मीद है और इससे पहले सोने की चमक फीकी पड़ गई है। घरेलू बाजार में आज दाम 2 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर पर आ गया है। दरअसल डॉलर में रिकवरी आई है। घरेलू बाजार में सोने की मांग कमजोर पड़ गई है। सोने पर करीब 1.5 डॉलर का डिस्काउंट चल रहा है। चांदी भी कमजोर है।

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इस बीच इसी हफ्ते आरबीआई ने घरेलू कंपनियों के विदेशी एक्सचेंजों पर सोने में हेजिंग पर रोक लगा दी है। घरेलू कंपनियां 1 अप्रैल से विदेश में हेज नहीं कर सकेंगी। विदेश में हेजिंग के नियमों में आरबीआई ने बदलाव किया है। अब घरेलू कमोडिटी एक्सचेंजों पर ही सोने में हेजिंग संभव होगी

कच्चे तेल में ऊपरी स्तर से दबाव है। कल की रिकवरी के बाद कच्चे तेल में बेहद छोटे दायरे में कारोबार हो रहा है। इंटरनेशनल एनर्जी एजेंसी ने कच्चे तेल की मांग पर अपना अनुमान बढ़ा दिया है। हालांकि कहा है कि इसका असर कीमतों पर देखने को नहीं मिलेगा, क्योंकि अमेरिका में क्रूड का उत्पादन तेजी से बढ़ रहा है।

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Commodity Trading Tips-Global oil demand picks up but still lags rising supply

Global oil demand is expected to pick up this year but supply is growing at a faster pace, leading to a rise in inventories in the first quarter of 2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

The IEA raised its forecast for oil demand this year to 99.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from 97.8 million bpd in 2017.

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Commercial oil inventories in industrialised OECD nations rose in January for the first time in seven months to 2.871 billion barrels, 53 million barrels above their five-year average, the Paris-based IEA said.

The January increase of 18 million barrels over the December inventory level was roughly half the size of rises normally seen at this time of year, according to the agency, which advises Western governments on energy policy.

But it said Venezuela, where an economic crisis has cut oil production by 50 per cent in two years to lows not seen in more than a decade, could still trigger a renewed drawdown in  stocks.

“With supply from Venezuela clearly vulnerable to an accelerated decline, without any compensatory change from other producers, it is possible that the Latin American country could be the final element that tips the market decisively into deficit,” the IEA said.

In a bid to drain inventories, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and several other producers have been implementing a deal to cut output by about 1.8 million bpd from January 2017 until the end of 2018.

Assuming no change in Opec output for the rest of the year, the IEA said it expected a small increase in OECD inventories in the first quarter of 2018 with declines after that.

The agency said it expected supply from non-Opec nations to grow by 1.8 million bpd in 2018 to 59.9 million bpd, led by the United States, where crude output was forecast to rise by 1.3 million bpd during 2018 to more than 11 million bpd by the end of the year.

Opec crude output fell in February to 32.1 million bpd, led by Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates.

The IEA raised its estimate for demand for Opec oil to 32.4 million bpd for 2018 from last month’s forecast of 32.3 million bpd.

The agency said the decision by US President Donald Trump decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, which has prompted threats of retaliation from major trading partners, posed a risk to global economic growth forecasts.

“A slowdown would have strong consequences, particularly for fuel used in the maritime sector and in the trucking industry,” the IEA said.

It said growth in world trade had been strong, accelerating from 2.5 per cent in 2016 to 4.7 per cent in 2017, citing this as the likely reason behind a sturdy 1.8 per cent rise in 2017 in global gasoil demand.

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Commodity Market Trading Tips-Oil prices stable on healthy demand, but oversupply looms later in 2018

Oil prices held steady on Thursday, supported by healthy global demand but capped by the relentless rise in US production that is undermining efforts led by producer cartel Opec to cut supplies and prop up markets.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $61.13 a barrel by 0245 GMT.

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Brent crude futures were at $65 per barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.2 per cent.

Reuters technical commodity analyst Wang Tao said market signals for Brent pointed to a continuation of recent sideways movements, although he added that technical chart indicators were “indicating the current sideways move may end very soon.”

Prices were receiving support from healthy demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said on Wednesday that oil consumption was expected to grow by 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018.

But looming over markets has been a relentless climb in US crude output <C-OUT-T-EIA>, which hit another record last week by rising to 10.38 million bpd, up by more than 23 per cent since mid-2016. Commercial crude inventories <C-STK-T-EIA> were up by by 5 million barrels, at 430.93 million barrels.

US crude production, which has already overtaken that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, is expected to rise above 11 million bpd later this year, taking the top spot from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency.

Soaring US output, as well as rising output in Canada and Brazil, is undermining efforts by Middle East dominated Opec to withhold supplies in order to bolster prices.

Opec on Wednesday raised its forecast for non-member oil supply to almost double the growth predicted four months ago.

The group said non-Opec producers would boost supply by 1.66 million bpd in 2018.

But since Opec expects demand this year to grow by only 1.62 million bpd, that would leave the market slightly oversupplied and may require more or longer supply restraint.

Opec and several other non-Opec producers led by Russia began cutting supply in January, 2017 to erase a global glut of crude that had built up since 2014.

Opec said its combined output dropped by 77,000 bpd to 32.186 million bpd in February, led by declines in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

These cuts and rising US output mean that Opec is losing market share.

“In 2018, demand for Opec crude is forecast at 32.6 million bpd, down by 0.2 million bpd from the previous assessment and 0.2 million bpd lower than a year earlier,” Opec said.

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MCX Commodity Trading Tips-Gold Rate Today: Gold, silver melt in morning session today

Gold and silver felt the squeeze in morning trade on Tuesday, hurt by subdued demand from jewellers, industries and retailers.

MCX Gold futures were lower 0.10 per cent, or Rs 29, at Rs 30,303 per 10 grams at around 10.35 am (IST). MCX Silver futures eased 0.21 per cent, or Rs 80, to Rs 38,675 per kg at around the same time.

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According to SMC Investments and Advisors, the bullion counter may continue to trade with sideways bias lacking clear direction. Today’s US inflation data will be important before the interest rate meeting later in the month.

“On domestic bourses, gold can test Rs 30,450 while silver can move towards Rs 38,950 on the MCX,” SMC said.

Angel Broking said, “Strong jobs data from the US, world equities at a two-week high, and possibility of rate hikes in the US are factors creating downside pressure on gold. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower today.”

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Commodity Market Trading Tips-Agri-commodity wrap-up: Soyabean, chana futures fall on tepid demand

Soyabean prices slipped by Rs 77 to Rs 3,745 per quintal in futures trading today on immense selling by investors tracking weak global market sentiment.

Market players attributed the steep fall in soyabean futures prices to a weakening trend overseas.

Besides, a falling trend in other edible oils segments pulled down the trading sentiment in soyabean futures, they quoted.

At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange platform, soyabean delivery for the most active near contract April month plunged by Rs 77 or 2.01 per cent to Rs 3,745 per quintal, depicting a business turnover of 2,52,110 open lots.

Similarly, the delivery of immediate contract March month went down by Rs 65 or 1.72 per cent to Rs 3,720 per quintal, having an open interest of 61,020 lots.

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Chana futures
Chana prices slipped 2.10 per cent to Rs 3,721 per quintal in futures trade today as participants reduced exposure following subdued demand at the spot market.

Profit-booking at existing higher levels also weighed on the sentiment.

At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in the current month contract declined by Rs 80, or 2.10 per cent, to Rs 3,721 per quintal, with an open interest of 31,250 lots.

The commodity for delivery in far-month April fell by Rs 72, or 1.92 per cent, to trade at Rs 3,666 per quintal with an open interest of 80,960 lots.

Analysts attributed the fall in chana futures to offloading of positions by traders, taking negative leads from physical markets due to tepid demand against sufficient stocks position.
Crude palm oil
Crude palm oil prices declined by 0.47 per cent to Rs 637.50 per 10 kg in futures market today as speculators reduced exposure, taking negative cues from the spot market on subdued demand.

Besides, sufficient stocks position following higher supplies from the producing belts too fuelled the downtrend.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in the current month fell by Rs 3, or 0.47 per cent, to Rs 637.50 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 266 lots.

Likewise, the oil for delivery in April was trading lower by Rs 2.40, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 643.60 per 10 kg in 290 lots.

Analysts said cutting down of positions by participants owing to muted demand in the physical market against adequate stocks position on higher supplies from producing producing belts mainly led to the decline in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.

Jeera futures
Jeera prices fell 2.33 per cent, or Rs 340, to trade at Rs 14,250 per quintal in futures market today as speculators cut bets to book profits at prevailing levels amid muted domestic and exports demand.

Furthermore, ample stocks position following higher arrivals in Gujarat, fuelled the downtrend.

At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for the current month contract fell Rs 340, or 2.33 per cent, to trade at Rs 14,250 per quintal with an open interest of 4,950 lots.

Similarly, the spice for delivery in April contract moved down by Rs 180, or 1.20 per cent, to Rs 14,815 per quintal in 8,079 lots.

Analysts said besides profit-booking by speculators at existing levels, fall in demand at the spot market against adequate stocks position, kept pressure on jeera futures.

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STARINDIA Research MCX Base Metal Tips UPDATE: Missed Call@8817002233



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Commodity Market Trading Tips-Gold gains as trade war fears weigh on dollar, equities

Gold prices inched higher early Wednesday to their highest in a week as US equities and the dollar weakened after President Donald Trump said he would push ahead with punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, rekindling fears of a potential trade war.

Spot gold rose 0.1 per cent to $1,335.07 per ounce at 0126 GMT after hitting $1,340.42 an ounce earlier in the session, its highest since February 26.

US gold futures for April delivery rose 0.1 per cent to $1,336.30 per ounce.

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US stock futures and the dollar slumped on Wednesday after a key advocate for free trade in the White House announced his resignation, fanning fears Trump would go ahead with tariffs and risk a trade war.

Trump’s top economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned on Tuesday after the US president said he was sticking with plans to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which some critics have dubbed the first shot in a global trade war.

The US dollar will retreat further over the coming year, giving way to an ascendant euro, according to a Reuters poll of strategists who said five or more Federal Reserve rate rises would be needed to significantly boost the greenback’s fortunes .

Feeling the pressure of sanctions, North Korea seems “sincere” in its apparent willingness to halt nuclear tests if it held denuclearization talks with the United States, Trump said on Tuesday as US, South Korean and Japanese officials voiced skepticism about any discussions.

New orders for US-made goods recorded their biggest decline in six months in January and business spending on equipment appeared to be slowing after strong growth in 2017.

Asian gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added more tonnes in February than North America and Europe, reversing its 2017 trend of having more flows out, the World Gold Council said on Tuesday.

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