Commodity Market Trading Updates -Base metals: Copper, nickel slide on muted demand

Amid profit-booking by speculators at existing levels, copper futures fell 0.36 per cent to Rs 447.90 per kg today even as metal strengthened overseas.

Moreover, muted demand at domestic spot markets also put pressure on prices.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November declined by Rs 1.60 or 0.36 per cent to Rs 447.90 per kg in a business turnover of 1,671 lots.

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The metal for delivery in far-month February next year down Rs 1.55 or 0.34 per cent to Rs 452.80 per kg in a business volume of 12 lots.

Analysts said the fall in copper prices at futures trade was mostly attributed to profit-booking by speculators after recent gains amid fall in domestic demand but a firm trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME), minimised the loss.

Globally, copper for delivery in three-months gained 1.3 per cent to settle at USD 6,887 per tonne at the LME in yesterday’s trade as optimism over the demand outlook from major consumer China fuelled buying.
Nickel
Nickel prices declined by 0.29 per cent to Rs 744 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets, driven by easing demand in the spot market.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in November fell by Rs 2.20, or 0.29 per cent, to Rs 744 per kg, in a business turnover of 28 lots.

Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month shed Rs 2.10, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 738.20 per kg in 1,148 lots.

Analysts said offloading of positions by participants on the back of sluggish demand from alloy-maker in the spot market mainly weighed on nickel prices at futures trade.

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Commodity Market Trading – Base metals: Copper, nickel slide on muted demand

Gold and silver were trading in red in morning trade on Friday on account of subdued demand of precious metals by jewellers, industries and retailers.

gold-silver-trade-trade-in-red-on-friday-morning

MCX Gold futures were down 0.11 per cent, or Rs 34, at Rs 29,780 per 10 gram around 10.20 am (IST), whereas MCX Silver futures were down 0.13 per cent, or Rs 52, at Rs 40,300 per 1 kg.

According to Angel Broking, the focus of the markets have now shifted from the geo-political crisis to the economic data that will be released from the US, besides, the possibility of rate hike scenario in the US is a factor for gold prices to move lower in the sessions ahead.

“On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower on Friday,” Angel Broking said.

However, SMC Investments and Advisors believes that bullion counter may trade on positive path as weaker greenback and slightly dovish outcome from FOMC minutes can give support to the prices.

Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee will give further direction to the prices.

Gold can move in range of Rs 29,600-29,950 while silver can move in range of Rs 40,000-40,500 in near term,” SMC said.

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Commodity Market – Rains dampen Diwali cheer for farmers

The continuing post-monsoon rainfall in October has caused damages to the harvest-ready kharif crop and increased pest incidence on high value horticulture crops. Low commodity prices and decline in per acre productivity due to erratic monsoons are turning a dampener this Diwali for the rural community.

rains-dampen-diwali-cheer-for-farmers

“The weather is driving farmers crazy. Afraid of increase in pest incidence due to excess moisture, farmers are spraying pesticides during the small intervals between rainfall even though the rain is washing it away immediately,” said Jagannath Khapre, president, All India Grape Exporters Association. Farmers also fear shortages of pesticides.

Soyabean crop harvest had just begun in Maharashtra, the second-largest producer of the oilseed.

Rainfall will affect crop quality thus reducing returns for farmers. MG Gunjkar, secretary, Latur APMC, said, “Soyabean harvest, which had recently begun, has come to a halt due to rainfall. There is the possibility of deterioration in quality, in which case, farmers may not be able to get even the government support price.”

Telangana has also seen excess rainfall in October. According to preliminary estimate of the state government, crops on 65,000 hectares have been damaged, of which, 53,000 hectares is cotton.

The state is the first to harvest cotton and prices have been ruling lower than the minimum support price due to high moisture content. In Karnataka, army worm has at tacked the kharif crop. “There has been a wild outbreak of army worm on maize, ragi and red gram.We anticipate losses of 20 per cent in maize,” said a Karnataka Agriculture Department official.

In Karnataka, kharif acreage has declined from 71.7 lakh hectares to 64 lakh hectares due to deficit rainfall. Low rains in June and July had caused yield losses of 25 per cent to 50 per cent depending upon the districts.Heavy rains, accompanied by gusty winds, since October 9 in South Bengal have affected vegetable and the kharif paddy in certain areas.

Pradip Mazumdar, agriculture advisor to Mamata Banerjee, said, “There has been some loss in kharif paddy crop which is yet to be harvested. The government is yet to make an assessment of the crop loss as the region is witnessing scattered rains. We are afraid that Damodar Valley Corporation may release water due to heavy showers in Jharkhand. If that happens, the crop loss will be more. Let us first assess the situation and come up with the numbers.”

In August, heavy showers had flushed away paddy seeds from fields in Burdwan, Hooghly, Nadia, Purulia, East Midnapore and East Midnapore.

 

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COMMODITY OUTLOOK on Aluminum Market

Aluminum:-

The Aluminum is in perfect uptrend .Currently Aluminum is in strong uptrend and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. Cautious point is buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term the current position is buy Support for the Aluminum is 136. Immediate resistance for Aluminum is 140. Currently Aluminum is in hold long position Aluminum has crossed the high but the trend was not strong and sellers was at high so for short term better buy above 141.8 with stop at 136.8 The oscillator is showing buy signal.

aluminium

 

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COMMODITY OUTLOOK on Gold Market

Gold:-

Gold futures fell nearly one percent in American trade to the lowest since August 8, heading for the fourth weekly decline on a row as the dollar index hit the highest since July 26, following an array of data from the US the world’s largest economy. The number of non-farm payrolls in the economy fell 33 thousand for the first time since November 2010 compared to the addition of 169K new jobs in August, revised higher from 156K while analysts expected 82K new jobs. Markets await Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley’s speech titled .The Monetary Policy Outlook and the Importance of Higher Education for Economic Mobility at the Council for Economic Education, in New York, while Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel discussion at the Investing in America’s Workforce Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve System, in Austin. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker spoke at the Investing in America’s Workforce Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve System in Austin where he expected three rate hikes this year and for economic growth to surpass 2% by the end of this year noting that the skilled labour shortage is one of the most important challenges facing the US economy.

gold-slips-as-investors-shrug-off-n-korea-fed-rate-hike-outlook-weighs

 

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Commodity Market Trading Tips – Coffee board sees 12% rise in crop

The Coffee Board has projected a record post blossom estimate of coffee crop for 2017-18 contrary to the views expressed by growers.

The post blossom forecast has been placed at 3,50,400 tonnes comprising 1,03,100 tonnes of arabica and 2,47,300 tonnes of robusta, showing over 12 per cent (38,400 tonnes) rise over the final estimate of coffee harvest of 2016-17.

coffee-board-sees-12-rise-in-crop

Growers had predicted a 10 per cent to 20 per cent decline in robusta crop because of vagaries of weather.However, the board has said that post blossom estimate has taken into account the additional bearing area of about 13,500 hectares in the traditional coffee growing regions of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

It further said that post blossom estimation was taken dur ing May 2017 and crop losses after that will be reflected in the post monsoon estimation. The post blossom estimates are generally released in May. But Coffee Board chairman MS Boje Gowda had told ET in an e-mail interview a week ago that the delay of pre-monsoon and backup showers had delayed data collection process.

The board has calculated the final crop estimate for 2016-17 at 3,12,000 tonnes, an overall drop of 36,000 tonnes (10.34 per cent) over the previous year which harvested a record crop of 3,48,000 tonnes.

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Commodity Outlook on Crude Market

Crude Outlook: Crude oil gained a little over 9 percent month to date.

“Investors have really gained confidence in oil, after the OPEC cuts that were originally discussed earlier in the year are starting to take shape here, and oil production is being curbed,” Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

crude

Further fueling the commodity’s recent upside is the International Energy Agency having upped its demand outlook for the end of this year and into 2018, Streible said.

Due to this combination of production cuts and growing demand, oil could head up to its 2017 high, just above USD 55, or even USD 60 per barrel by year-end. A global supply glut has plagued the market for several years, and OPEC member countries and non-member producers have vowed to implement cuts to curb such oversupply.

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