Commodity,MCX Trading – Gold marginally down in futures trade on global cues

Gold prices softened by 0.18 per cent to Rs 29,771 per 10 gram in futures trading as traders trimmed their bets amid weak global cues.

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At Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in December declined by Rs 54 or 0.18 per cent to Rs 29,771 per ten gram in business turnover of 323 lots.

Analysts said cutting down of positions by participants, tracking a weak trend in global markets weighed on gold prices in futures trade here.

Meanwhile, gold fell 0.02 per cent to USD 1,287.10 an ounce in Singapore.

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COMMODITY OUTLOOK on Gold Market

Gold:-

Gold futures tilted lower in American trade near a six-week trough, while the dollar index gained ground, following earlier data from the US, the world’s largest economy. Earlier US data showed personal income and spending slowed down in line with expectations in August, while Chicago PMI rose unexpectedly in September, as the final reading for the UoM consumer sentiment survey fell more than expected this month. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned from keeping interest rates at their current low levels until inflation hits the Fed’s 2% target, in turn rallying chances of a third Fed rate hike in December to 78% in financial betting markets, and weighing on gold prices. The Gold is in long- medium- term bull phase .Currently Gold is moving sideways The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing sell signal .In last 1 month volatility is very less and fresh Buy can be considered in the Gold if it close above 30596 or buy with strict stop at 29325.The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term Gold is in hold long position. Support for the Gold is 29440.Resistance for the Gold is 30220.

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कच्चे तेल में उबाल, सोना 1300 डॉलर के पार

जियोपोलिटिकल तनाव के बीच अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चा तेल 3 फीसदी उछलकर 59 डॉलर प्रति बैरल के पार निकल गया है। कच्चा तेल इस साल के शिखर पर दिख रहा है। वहीं, सोने में भी तेजी देखने को मिल रही है और इसकी कीमत 1300 डॉलर के पार निकल गई है।

सोने में आई कमजोरी, कच्चे तेल में तेजी

स्टार इंडिया रिसर्च की निवेश सलाह

सोना एमसीएक्स: खरीदें – 29900, स्टॉपलॉस – 29750 और लक्ष्य – 30300

कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स: खरीदें – 3360, स्टॉपलॉस – 3300 और लक्ष्य – 3450

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Commodity Market Trading – Is it a good time to invest in gold or is it a good time to exit?

International gold prices recently crossed the USD 1300 per ounce mark. The last time it had been above this level was between June’16 and Sept’16, and prior to that between June’14 and Aug’14.

In the Indian context, gold prices have been close to Rs 30,000 per 10 grams since the beginning of the month of September. So, the question now is that is it a good time to invest in gold or is it a good time to exit?

To answer this question, we would need to understand some of the important factors that drive gold prices. Domestic gold prices mainly track international gold prices.

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International gold prices are denominated in US dollar and hence share an inverse relation with US dollar i.e. its prices move up when the dollar weakens and vice-versa.

Historically, gold prices have also shared an inverse relation with US Federal Reserve rate. As interest rates increase, income (interest) generating assets like US Treasuries, become more attractive as compared to gold, which does not generate any income.

Another important factor that impacts the price of gold is its safe-haven appeal, as it has traditionally been viewed as a store of value.

Whenever markets go into a risk-off mode, demand for gold goes up, as its safe-haven appeal increases, while its demand goes down when markets go into a risk-on mode (indicated by volatility in financial markets).

Gold is also considered as a hedge against inflation, and in the Indian context, a hedge against depreciation of Rupee as well.

Gold prices have risen recently amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, ratcheted up due to hostile statements by North Korea, its testing of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) which can reach the USA and the latest trigger being the nuclear test conducted by it.

US President Donald Trump as well has taken an aggressive posture. Moreover, US dollar has been weakening against a basket of major currencies (Dollar Index) since the beginning of 2017; it has weakened by 9.5%, as of 13th Sept’17.

Doubts over Trump administration’s ability to push through the economic reforms, that he had promised during his election campaign, has put pressure on the dollar.

Reports of somewhat subdued economic data in the US as well has led to a weakening of the dollar. Also, US Federal Reserve officials are increasingly sounding dovish in their view about the interest rate hike.

Where will gold prices go from here, in some measure depends on how the above-mentioned factors pan out in the future.

Additionally, to sight a few, it also depends on how the global economy grows, if and when does European Central Bank and Bank of Japan start easing their asset purchase programs, etc.

Obviously, there are no certain answers to these questions, and hence, like equities, timing investments in gold is very difficult. Moreover, historical performance of gold has been negatively correlated to that of equities.

This provides diversification benefit and ultimately results in lower volatility in the performance of the portfolio. A long-term analysis of the performance indicates that gold has typically underperformed equity.

Hence, allocation to gold could be strategic in nature i.e. around 5% to 10% of the total portfolio; depending on one’s risk appetite.

Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) could be the preferred vehicle of investment; as compared to physical gold. The underlying asset of all the Gold ETFs is gold of 99.5% purity, thus the performance of most of the ETFs is quite similar.

The minor difference in their performance is on account of tracking error ( the difference between ETF’s returns and gold’s returns) and expense ratio.

Gold ETFs are easy to hold as they are in a dematerialized form. This helps in saving on the storage cost and avoid security risk. Also, their pricing is transparent and are listed on the exchange and their purity is guaranteed by the asset management company.

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Commodity Market Trading – Gold futures slide Rs 265 on weak global cues

Gold fell Rs 265 to Rs 29,509 per 10 grams in futures trade today as participants reduced their positions, largely in line with a weak trend overseas.

Profit-booking at existing levels also weighed on the yellow metal.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in October was trading lower by Rs 265 or 0.89 per cent at Rs 29,509 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 1,311 lots.

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Analysts said besides a weak global trend where gold fell to its lowest level in over three weeks as a stronger dollar as expectations of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve grew stronger, curbing demand for the precious metals, weighed on its prices at futures trade here.

Globally, gold was down 0.21 per cent to USD 1,297.80 an ounce in Singapore after dropping to lowest since late August at USD 1,295.65, its lowest since late August.

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Commodity Market Trading-Gold gets a leg-up on festive demand, prices climb

Gold prices today made a turnaround after four days of losses, jumping Rs 150 to Rs 30,750 per 10 grams, taking strength from positive global leads and increased buying by local jewellers.

Silver too firmed up by Rs 400 to Rs 40,900 per kg, backed by higher demand from industrial units and coin makers.

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A firm trend developed overseas as the dollar weakened and investors looked forward to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today, traders said.

Globally, gold rose 0.27 per cent to USD 1,314.30 an ounce and silver by 0.23 per cent to USD 17.31 an ounce in Singapore.

Besides, domestic jewellers stepped up buying to meet festive season demand at the spot market, which fuelled the uptrend, they said.

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity rose by Rs 150 each to Rs 30,750 and Rs 30,600 per 10 grams, respectively. The precious metal had lost Rs 400 in the previous four days.

Sovereign, however, remained flat at Rs 24,700 per piece of eight grams.

In line with the overall trend, silver ready bounced back by Rs 400 to Rs 40,900 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 530 to Rs 40,320 per kg.

Silver coins, however, continued to be traded at the previous level of Rs 74,000 for buying and Rs 75,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

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STARINDIA Research MCX TIPS UPDATE

UPDATE:-

KINDLY BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN GOLD BUY CALL 1ST TGT 30240 HAS ACHIEVED PROFIT RS. 10,000/- IN 2 LOTS

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