Commodity Market Trading-Oil prices fall after surprise rise in US inventories R

OilNSE 1.69 % prices dropped on Wednesday after an industry group reported that US crude inventories rose last week, defying analyst expectations for a significant reduction.

Brent futures were down 40 cents, or 0.6 per cent, at $71.76 a barrel by 0027 GMT. They rose 32 cents to $72.16 a barrel on Tuesday, after earlier touching a three-month low.

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US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 27 cents, or 0.4 per cent, at $67.82. It settled up 2 cents at $68.08 a barrel the session before, coming off a nearly one-month low.

The benchmarks had steadied after big declines on Monday and last week as supply disruptions in Venezuela came to the fore and as analysts had been forecasting a decline of 3.5 million barrels in US inventories for the week through July 13.

But the spectre of oversupply quickly returned, with a rise of more than 600,000 barrels in US crude stockpiles, reported by the American Petroleum Institute late on Tuesday.

Gasoline stocks rose by 425,000 barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 44,000-barrel decline.

Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for an 873,000-barrel gain, the data showed.

Refinery crude runs fell by 279,000 barrels per day, the API data showed.

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ब्रेंट क्रूड 74 डॉलर के पास, सोने की चाल सुस्त

ग्लोबल बाजार में कच्चे तेल में हल्की गिरावट देखने को मिल रही है। ब्रेंट क्रूड 0.5 फीसदी फिसलकर 74 डॉलर पर आ गया है। नायमैक्स पर डब्ल्यूटीआई क्रूड 70.3 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रहा है।

सोने और चांदी की चाल सुस्त नजर आ रही है। कॉमैक्स पर सोना सपाट होकर 1,247 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रहा है। चांदी भी सपाट होकर 16 डॉलर पर नजर आ रही है।

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Commodity Market Trading-Oil edges lower, set for big weekly decline

Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were set for a second weekly fall, as the market shrugged off a warning that spare capacity may be stretched as OPEC and Russia increase production.

Brent crude eased 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $74.25 by 0059 GMT. On Thursday it gained $1.05 a barrel, rebounding from a session low of $72.67. It is heading for a weekly fall of nearly 4 percent.

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US crude dipped 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $70.27, after a five cent decline in the previous session. It is heading for a weekly decline of nearly 5 percent.

It has been a wild week for oil prices with both the main benchmarks suffering heavy losses on Wednesday as traders focused on the return of Libyan oil to the market amid concerns about a China-US trade war.

However, a warning on spare capacity by the International Energy Agency (IEA) pushed Brent higher on Thursday, helping it recoup some losses.

The IEA cautioned that the world’s oil supply cushion “might be stretched to the limit” due to production losses in several different countries.

“Rising production from Middle East Gulf countries and Russia, welcome though it is, comes at the expense of the world’s spare capacity cushion, which might be stretched to the limit,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report.

“This vulnerability currently underpins oil prices and seems likely to continue doing so,” the agency said.

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Commodity Market-Short covering may lift crude prices

Crude oil may witness some short covering on Thursday while bullion counter may trade lower, says SMC Global SecuritiesNSE -3.13 %.

Let’s have a look at the likely trends of the key commodities today:

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Bullion counter: Gold may find support near Rs 30,200, starting at the headwinds near Rs 30,500 in MCX. Meanwhile, silver can take support near Rs 39,000 and resistance near Rs 39,500.

Base metals: Zinc may hit the skids near Rs 181 with the support zone at Rs 174 while lead can take support near Rs 149 and can face resistance near Rs 153.

Nickel may slip lower towards Rs 945 while upside is likely to be capped near Rs 970. Aluminium can face resistance near Rs 140 while it can take support near Rs 145 in MCX.

Crude oil, natural gas: Crude oil can find relief near Rs 4,850 and may experience resistance near Rs 4,960 in MCX. Natural gas may trade with a positive bias as it can recover towards Rs 198 in MCX.

Agri commodities 

Soybean futures (Oct) are expected to consolidate in the range of Rs 3,410 – Rs 3,470 levels.

Guar seed (Oct) is expected to take support near Rs 4,110 levels, while guar gum (Oct) is likely to remain above Rs 8,600 levels.

Cotton futures (July) are expected to trade higher and test Rs 22,950 levels on reports of lower sowing in the ongoing Kharif season.

Mustard seed futures (Aug) are expected to trade sideways to up in the range of Rs 4,120 .

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कमोडिटी बाजार में आज कहां लगाएं दांव

ट्रेड वॉर बढ़ने की आशंका से बेस मेटल्स में खासी गिरावट दर्ज की जा रही है। लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज में कॉपर एक साल के निचले स्तर पर पहुंच गया है। वहीं जिंक 13 महीने के निचले स्तर पर है। शंघाई में मेटल्स की कीमतों पर ज्यादा दबाव है। अमेरिका के चीन के 200 अरब डॉलर के आयात पर 10 फीसदी ड्यूटी लगाने के प्रस्ताव से मेटल्स पर दबाव है।

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कच्चे तेल में कल की तेजी के बाद आज गिरावट देखी जा रही है। ब्रेंट करीब 1 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 78 डॉलर के करीब है। नायमैक्स क्रूड में 0.5 फीसदी से ज्यादा की गिरावट है। अमेरिका के कुछ देशों को ईरान से क्रूड इंपोर्ट में छूट देने की संभावना से कच्चे तेल पर दबाव है। सोने की कीमतों पर भी आज दबाव देखा जा रहा है। डॉलर इंडेक्स में मजबूती के कारण सोने में कमजोरी आई है। एग्री कमोडिटीज पर आज भी फोकस रहेगा क्योंकि मध्य और उत्तर-पश्चिम भारत में अगले कुछ दिनों तक अच्छी बारिश की संभावना है।

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Commodity Market Updates-‘Completely cutting off Iran could send oil soaring to $120 a barrel’

Crude oilNSE 0.46 % could surge to more than $120 a barrel, according to Bank of America Merill Lynch analysts, if the Trump administration were to order a complete cutoff of Iranian barrels before the end of the year.

“Oil is now a game of chicken,” the analysts wrote in a note Thursday. They said zero-tolerance sanctions on Iran — the fourth-largest oil producer — could add $50 per barrel to crude prices, which are up more than 25 per cent this year. Brent, the international benchmark .

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The State Department said this week that certain countries, including India and South Korea, will be allowed reduced flows of Iranian oil. And Saudi Arabia recently agreed to increase production by two million barrels per day, according to a White House statement.

But analysts are skeptical Saudi Arabia will be able to keep up. The unofficial leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries has never pumped more than 10.6 million barrels per day on average over a single month .

“It appears the oil market has little confidence that Iran volumes can be easily replaced,” the analysts wrote.

The move is part of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which previously eased economic penalties on the country as long as it curbed its nuclear weapons programme.

The oil sanctions come after Opec and other supply-cutting countries agreed at a summit in June to reduce compliance from more than 150 per cent in May to about 100 per cent starting this month. The cartel had previously been practicing over-compliance in efforts to tackle a global oil glut.

But it is unclear if the new agreement will be able to balance supply as multiple producers — Venezuela, Libya, Angola, Mexico, or Nigeria — face major output disruptions.

Unlike in trade wars, oil price shocks do not have winners,” the analysts wrote. “But these do not include the US, China, Europe, Japan.”

Rising oil prices have stabilized Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves, they added, after a $250 billion drop in the last three years. At the same time, other countries face higher energy prices.

The analysts estimate that every million barrel per day shift in supply and demand balances would push oil prices by $17 a barrel on average. Based on that assumption, they added, zero Iran exports could push oil up by $50 a barrel if Saudi Arabia caps out.

“In this game of chicken, we expect someone will blink before that happens,” they wrote.

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COMMODITY OUTLOOK on Crude Oil

Crude Oil:-

The Crude oil can remain sideways with negative bias.  Crude oil has remained range bound in this week due to uncertainly arose over the current Trade conflicts between US and China, and it remained cautious ahead of the deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese Imports.  Higher inventory in this week also put pressure on the crude oil prices. In MCX, Crude oil prices fell by 17 points (0.34%) and ended at 5072 as compare to the last week closing price of 5089. Buy on dips strategy would be better to follow in Crude oil in coming days.

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